As we settle into 2017, we are seeing significant improvements to the pace of sales, overall market conditions, and most importantly, consumer confidence. The energy market is the biggest driver of stability as oil prices have now increased by 75% year-over-year to the mid $50 range. This price range offers job security and many positions to be restored. While it is still not pre-2015 conditions, consumers are opening their wallets and starting to make the home purchases they have been putting off.
Calgary is a tale of two markets. Overall, 30-day sales volumes are up almost 30% from a year ago and we are sitting solidly in a balanced market with 3.24 months of inventory (balanced is 2.5mths–4.0mths). The busiest side of the market is in single family detached homes, which are up 32% in last 30 days of sales compared to this time last year. With only 2.34 months of inventory, we are in sellers’ market conditions and some buyers are facing multiple offers in lower prices ranges.
The condo market is still facing a surplus of inventory but is moving in the right direction with a 30%+ increase in sales. At 4.96 months of inventory, buyers still have the advantage but this is trending towards a balanced market with each passing day. A wild card affecting price growth on the condo side will be the number of new buildings expected to be completed, which could increase inventories in the next 12 months.
Overall, the conditions are right for price growth this year. The Calgary Real Estate Board is forecasting 2% increases across the market. For sellers, we expect a great year when priced with the market (overpricing will not work). For buyers, you have lots of great options on the condo side of the market but you may find yourself facing more competition for listings when looking at the single family detached segment.